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The set of all factors that the system takes into account is set by the user and can be individually adapted. The default set of factors is described in the "Default Predictors" section.
Parameters
"Parameters" area is designed to choose and configure the basic parameters of the forecast model. It consists of the following categories:
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SKUs chart – visualizes "Components" element in the form of a chart for all SKUs (the user himself selects which component to display on the chart). Details on all components are described in the Forecast analysis components guide;
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SKUs table – visualize "Components' element values as a table for all SKU (the user himself selects which component to display on the chart);
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Stores chart – visualizes "Components" element in the form of a chart for all stores (the user himself selects which component to display on the chart). Details on all components are described in the Forecast analysis components guide;
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Stores table – visualize "Components' element values as a table for all Stores (the user himself selects which component to display on the chart);
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Components – Allows you to add a new component, parameter, result or characteristic of the calculated forecast model to the results display area. Different components display either their influence on the forecast in sales volume or value, and also display historical values of factors that affect the forecast. The use of components allows a more detailed study of the influence of factors on the forecast, as well as understanding why the forecast has one or another value. Anomaly sales and excluded weeks are also added using components (described in detail in the Anomaly & Excluded section). After being added, the component disappears from the list; The component is returned to the list after it is removed from the display area. For more detailed information about the "Components" elements, use the Справочник компонентов анализа Forecast analysis components guide; section;
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Forecast – designed for visual analysis of the forecast results on the chart. The chart allows you to visually estimate built forecast, as well as using components to understand the forecast behavior (for example, using the stock component, you can see changes in the stocks balance and understand that, for example, sales fell precisely because of shortages);
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Predictors – designed for visualization and assessment of the impact of predictors on the predictive model (those predictors that were included in the model are displayed). Allows you to analyze, because of what parameters the forecast has one or another value. For more information on predictors, see Predictors. This element is very important for understanding the forecast itself. It displays the numerical values of the influence of various factors on the forecast and understand on what exactly the sales depend in different periods. User can turn off the display of any element by clicking on its name under the chart.
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order – represents the sales forecast with safety stock (recommended results for ordering);
seasonality – represents the influence of the seasonality on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
trend – represents the influence of the trend on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
region – represents the region sales influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group – represents the group sales influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
auto error – represents the influence of unknown factors on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast). It is based on the avg error component, and the duration of the component effect can be 2, 4, or 6 weeks, depending on which duration gives the best result (min error);
min – represents the influence of the sales conversion on sales volume, in the case of a forecast below the historically limiting volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast). The limiting sales volume is the lower quartile of sales by default;
price % – represents the price changing influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
discount – represents the discount influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
discount % – represents the discount (in percent) influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
rate – represents the dollar rate influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
a. price – represents the actual price (price with discount) influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
price – represents the price influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
item count. – represents the influence of the width of the available assortment (the width of the assortment on the stock) on the sales volumes (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group disc – represents the influence of the average discount of all SKUs in the product group that the SKU belongs to (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group price – represents the influence of the average price of all SKUs in the product group that the SKU belongs to (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
base – represents the base sales level (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
temp. – represents the average air temperature during the week influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
rain – represents the proportion of raining days of the week influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
snow – represents the proportion of snowing days of the week influence on sales volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
anomaly - displays the volume of anomaly sales, and also allows you to enter the value of anomaly sales in the opened field. Anomalies are described in detail in the section 'Anomaly & Excluded';
исключения - displays excluded weeks, and also allows you to exclude weeks in the field that opens. Excludes are described in detail in the section. : 'Anomaly & Excluded'.
If any components from the list are not displayed, this means that they were not included in the predictive model as predictors.
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sales – historical sales value;
forecast – forecast of sales value;
last year saels – historical sales value, shifted 52 weeks ahead in time;
order – represents the sales forecast with safety stock (recommended results for ordering);
seasonality – represents the influence of the seasonality on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
trend – represents the influence of the trend on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
region – represents the region sales influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group – represents the group sales influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
auto error – represents the influence of unknown factors on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast). It is based on the avg error component, and the duration of the component effect can be 2, 4, or 6 weeks, depending on which duration gives the best result (min error);
min – represents the influence of the sales conversion on sales value, in the case of a forecast below the historically limiting volume (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast). The limiting sales volume is the lower quartile of sales by default;
price % – represents the price changing influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
discount – represents the discount influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
discount % – represents the discount (in percent) influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
rate – represents the dollar rate influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
a. price – represents the actual price (price with discount) influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
price – represents the price influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
item count. – represents the influence of the width of the available assortment (the width of the assortment on the stock) on the sales values (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group disc. – represents the influence of the average discount of all SKUs in the product group that the SKU belongs to (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
group price – represents the influence of the average price of all SKUs in the product group that the SKU belongs to (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
base – represents the base sales level value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
temp. – represents the average air temperature during the week influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
rain – represents the proportion of raining days of the week influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
snow – represents the proportion of snowing days of the week influence on sales value (taking into account the coefficient of influence on the forecast);
anomaly - displays the value of anomaly sales, and also allows you to enter the value of anomaly sales in the opened field. Anomalies are described in detail in the section 'Anomaly & Excluded'.
If any components from the list are not displayed, this means that they were not included in the predictive model as predictors.
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To upload a forecast from a file, select the file by pressing the button "Select file". After selecting a file, press the button .
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Descriptions of the fields of file with master forecast for a specific week:
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Example of file with master forecast for a specific week File example.
Descriptions of the fields of file with master forecast for the period:
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