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For more handy forecasts displaying and searching page "Master" has filters:
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Search line. Search is done by fields:
SKU id;
Name;
Forecast;
Updated by.
Filter by week. Displayed all forecasts whose week is equal to the selected. The current week is selected by default. If the search string is not empty, then becomes possible to select all weeks to display forecasts for all weeks.
Filter by revisions. Allows you to display all revisions of forecasts (more details about the revisions in the "About revisions"). By default, the filter is off and unavailable. The filter becomes available if the search string is not empty. If using a filter, the table displays the forecast revisions (only the current one can be edited) and the forecasts can be deleted.
Adding forecast
To add a new manual forecast, click the add forecast button.
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After clicking the button, opens a modal window for adding a forecast, which consists of the following fields:
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Group – field for selecting the product group. If the user wants to skip the selection of the group and be able to choose from all SKUs in the system, not limited by the group, check the box next to "Not limited by group" (in this case the SKU list will be loaded longer than usual);
SKU – field for selecting Sku from the selected product group;
Type - selecting SKU type for which the master forecast is set. There are three types of SKU in the system:
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Other - default type - suitable for all SKUs;
New item - type for new positions;
Promo - type for specifying a manual forecast for the position in the promo. When this type is selected, two new fields appear in the form of adding the forecast master:
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These fields are intended for selecting the start and end dates of the promotion. The date must be entered in the format YYYY-MM-DD;
Week – field for selecting the week for which the forecast is set;
Forecast – field for setting the forecast of sales volume;
Notes – field for recording notes for a new forecast.
After filling the fields, click the button "Add". If decision off adding a new forecast is canceled, click the button "Back".
If there is an error when adding a forecast, a modal window appears with an error message.
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Editing forecast
The forecast is edited in the table. The "Forecast", "Notes", "Date from", "Date to" fields are editable (date fields are editable only for fields with "Promo" type).
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When the "Forecast" field is changed, a new revision of the forecast is created and the "Updated by" and "Updated" fields are updated.
When the "Notes" field is changed, the latest revision changes without creating a new revision. The "Updated by" and "Updated" fields are not updated in this case.
When the "Date from" or "Date by" fields are changed, a new version of the forecast is created and the "Updated by" and "Updated" fields are updated.
Deleting forecast
To delete the forecast click the button .
A window with the forecast data and the possibility to delete it opens.
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While using the filter by version, the forecast deleting is not available.
If you delete a forecast, all versions will be deleted. The data in the table is updated when the forecast is deleted.
Master forecast import/ex[ort from files
The user has the ability to upload master forecast from a csv file. There are two types of files:
File with master forecast for a specific week;
File with master forecast for a for the period between specific dates;
To upload a forecast from a file, select the file by pressing the button "Select file". After selecting a file, press the button .
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Descriptions of the fields of file with master forecast for a specific week:
SKU_ID - SKU code from MySales;
WEEK - the week for which the master forecast is added;
TYPE - master forecast type (1 - Promo, 2 - New item, 3 - Other);
FIX - indicates whether to fix the specified master forecast if the daily correction is triggered. For example, if FIX = 0 and the system sees that the sale is less than specified by the master, it will automatically lower the master forecast. And if FIX = 1, then the system will leave the master forecast unchanged (takes values 1 - fix, 0 - do not fix);
FCST - master forecast volume;
NOTES - additional notes (optional field);
STORES - stores for which the master forecast is added (if master is added for all stores - leave this field empty).
Example of file with master forecast for a specific week File example.
Descriptions of the fields of file with master forecast for the period:
SKU_ID - SKU code from MySales;
START_WEEK - start of the period for which master is added;
END_WEEK - end week of the period for which master is added;
TYPE - master forecast type (1 - Promo, 2 - New item, 3 - Other);
FIX - indicates whether to fix the specified master forecast if the daily correction is triggered. For example, if FIX = 0 and the system sees that the sale is less than specified by the master, it will automatically lower the master forecast. And if FIX = 1, then the system will leave the master forecast unchanged (takes values 1 - fix, 0 - do not fix);
FCST - master forecast volume;
NOTES - additional notes (optional field);
DATE_FROM - start date of the period for which master is added;
DATE_TO - end date of the period for which master is added;
STORES - stores for which the master forecast is added (if master is added for all stores - leave this field empty).
Example of file with master forecast for the period File example.
To upload master forecast to a file, press the button .
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About revisions
To track changes and save history "Master" does not overwrite the forecast (when updating or downloading from the file), but creates a new revision of the forecast. The revisions of the forecast are displayed when the filter by revisions is applied. When applying the filter, a new field "Revision" is added to the forecasts table. The current version has a value of 0, the relevance of the others is ranked by the increase (the smaller the number the more relevant).
While displaying the forecast revisions, the deleting is not available. Allowed to edit only the current version (whose revision number is 0).
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Use cases
The master forecast is used to adjust the forecast taking into account factors that the forecast cannot take into account. This is usually promotional sales (if a promotional module is not used, promotional sales are described in more detail below), new positions for which there is no history , or other non-standard events. In these cases master forecast is set based on an expert estimations.
It is always recommended to verify the promotional forecast for top positions as well as for new products where there is not enough history of the promotions using master forecast adjustments. This is relevant, since there are a number of factors that the system cannot take into account in the forecast, for example:
Changing market conditions for top positions, such as a significant change in market prices, or the emergence of competing positions.
Competitors activities that appear systematically with the same geography of coverage, such as expanding or narrowing the assortment, counter promotions, etc.
Events of a national scale, such as football championships, or other sporting events.
New ways of communication with the consumer to inform about promotional activities that have not been used before. For example, TV advertising for promos has not been carried out before, but this communication channel will be used in the planned promos. Or, SMS / Viber mailing was not previously conducted, but it is planned to use this channel.
For the cases mentioned above, it is recommended to revise the system forecast at the SKU-entire chain level and set a master forecast with the “Promo” type.
Also, it is possible to use a master forecast in a number of other cases, for example:
Revision of the forecast for new positions based on information received from the supplier when it is not possible to select an analogue
Planned narrowing or expansion of the assortment, which can significantly affect the demand for top positions
Reformatting the store, changing the layout and other factors invisible to the system, which can significantly affect the demand for top positions.
New
Overview & Use
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Page "New" allows you to add new SKU positions and calculate the forecast of their sales based on the sales data from similar products. When constructing the forecast, the system takes into account the coefficient of influence of each of the analogs, which is specified when adding a new position.
The list of records is displayed in the form of a table that has the following fields:
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SKU – SKU name;
Group – group name;
Analogs – names of similar products;
Ratio – coefficient of influence for each similar product;
Week – cutover week;
Updated – last update date.
Operation manual
Adding new position
To add a new position, click the add new item button (before adding the position, you must add it to the SKU database)
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After clicking the button, a modal window for adding a forecast opens, which consists of the following fields:
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Group - group name. If the user wants to skip the selection of the group and be able to choose from all SKUs in the system, not limited by the group, check the box next to "Not limited by group" (in this case the SKU list will be loaded longer than usual);
New item - new position name;
Analogs - names of similar products of a new position.
After clicking "Continue" button, the second window opens, in which the coefficients of the influence of analogues are set, as well as the cutover week:
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Editing and deleting
To delete new position click button .
After clicking, a modal window opens with the name of the item and a request to confirm the deletion.
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To edit new position click button .
After clicking a window with the possibility to change the coefficients of the influence of analogues, as well as the week of clipping opens.
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Filter
For more handy displaying and searching the page has SKU filter.
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Load data from file
The user has the ability to download data about new positions from the file. To do this, prepare a file in excel-format with the following fields:
GROUP_ID - group number;
SKU_ID - new SKU number;
ANALOGS - a list of analog SKU numbers separated by commas (it is important that analogs should be in the same group with a new position);
RATIO - the coefficients of influence of each analogue, separated by commas (in total, they should give 1);
WEEK - week of the start of sales of a new product;
An example of csv file can be found at link: "New items load file example".
Use cases
Section is under development.
Additional load
Overview
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Page "Additional load" is designed to set the calculation period for the additional forecast at SKU level - the entire network. This forecast is calculated for the specified period of time for the premature order of goods for this period.
Operating manual
Working with page
Page "Additional load" has a functional thatallows:
display the SKU list;
add records about the calculation of the additional forecast;
delete records about the calculation of the additional forecast;
edit records on the calculation of the additional forecast;
Apply filters to display records about calculating an additional forecast;
download and upload records about the calculation of the additional forecast.
The list of records is displayed in the form of a table that has the following fields:
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Sku id – SKU ID number;
Name – SKU name;
Week from – the first week of the period;
Week to - the last week of the period;
Updated by - the user who last made changes;
Updated – last update date.
To add a new record click “Add new record”
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After clicking the button, a modal window for adding a new entry appears. When adding a new entry, you must enter the following parameters:
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Group – group to which the desired Sku belongs. If a user wants to skip the selection of the group and be able to choose from all SKUs in the system, not limited by group, check the box next to "Not limited by group" (in this case the SKU list will be loaded longer than usually);
Sku – SKU for which the record is added;
Week from – the first week of the period;
Week to – the last week of the period.
To confirm the addition of a new record, press the button "Add". To return back – "Back".
To edit the record, press the button in the record line. After pressing the button, a modal window for editing the record appears. It is possible to edit the following parameters:
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Week from – the first week of the period;
Week to – the last week of the period.
To confirm the editing of the record, press the button "Edit". To return back – "Back".
To delete the record, press button in the record line.
Filters
For more handy records displaying and searching, the page "Additional Load" contains the following filters (Fig. 47):
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Search line. Search is done by fields:
SKU ID;
Name;
Updated by.
Filter by period.
Working with files
Page "Additional Load" has the possibility of uploading records from a file and downloading forecasts to a file.
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To load forecasts from a file click button "Select file". After selecting a file, click on the button .
"Additional Load" supports loading of 3 extensions of files:
tsv with separator Tab;
txt with separator Tab;
csv with separator ";".
The upload file must have the following fields:
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"SKU" – Sku id for which the record is created;
"WEEK" – the first week of the period;
"WEEK TO" – the last week of the period.
To download records in file press . All the records that are displayed in the table are downloaded in file with the following fields: "SKU", "WEEK", "WEEK TO".
Use cases
This functionality is used to provide the possibility of additional loading of stores with goods before special events or a high sales season, in the presence of various logistic restrictions in the operation of the distribution center or suppliers.
The “Additional load” functionality can also be used to load stores with goods at the beginning of the promo campaign for the entire period of the campaign, if such goods have the effect of increased demand in the first days of the campaign and the saturation of demand, which is accompanied by a drop in sales in the following days of the campaign.
It is also possible to use this functionality for additional loading of new stores with goods, in order to ensure peak sales in the early days, when a campaign of active promotion of a new store takes place.
It is recommended to use additional loading only for goods with a long shelf life, which, at the same time, are in the top of sales by volume, since for such items the risk of creating illiquid stocks is the least. It is not recommended to use this functionality for slowly selling positions, since for them there is a high risk of creating an illiquid stock. It is also not recommended for items with a short shelf life in order to avoid damage to the product and, as a result, write-offs or returns.
Enabled items
Overview & Use
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Operating manual
Working with page
Page "Enabled Items" has a functional that allows:
display the list of SKU;
add SKU to the list of auto-order items;
exclude SKU from the list of auto-order items;
apply filters to display SKU;
download SKU lists.
The Sku list is displayed as a table, which has the following fields:
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Group id – group number to which Sku belongs;
Sku id – SKU ID number;
Name – the name of SKU;
Updated by – the user who last made the changes;
Updated – date of last change.
To add Sku to the list of auto-order items, tick the last column of the table. To exclude Sku, you need to remove the checkmark. Sku is not added to the list of auto-order items by default.
The additional functionality menu (Fig. 41) appears on click the button
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Select all – allows you to add all Sku (with applied filters) to the list of auto-order items;
Delete All – allows you to exclude all Sku (with filters applied) from the list of auto-order items;
Export in tsv – allows you to download all Sku (with applied filters).
Filters
For more handy SKU displaying and searching the page "Enabled Items" contains the following filters:
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Search line. Search is done by fields:
Group id;
Sku id;
Name;
Updated by.
SKU display filter. Displays:
All – list of all SKU;
Selected – list of all SKU added to the list of auto-order items;
Deleted – list of all SKUs not added or excluded from the list of auto-order items.
Use cases
This functionality usually is used if the auto-ordering functionality is not implemented by the MySales, but by the existing customer auto-order system which uses the forecasts and the safety stock from MySales in the auto-order calculation formulae.
The “Enabled items” functionality does not affect the calculation of the forecast or order in MySales. However, if necessary, it can also be used in MySales for setting various kinds of restrictions for SKU lists.
When integrating forecasts and the MySales safety stocks into the auto-order formula of the customer’s system, it is recommended to use this functionality in order to gradually switch positions from the existing order calculation formula to a new one based on the MySales forecast and safety stock.
So when you start working with MySales, the user has the possibility to choose the positions for which MySales will calculate the forecast and safety stock for auto-order. For positions that are not selected in this form, the order will be calculated according to the old scheme - using forecast and safety stock calculated by customers auto-order system. And only for the selected positions, the auto-order system will take the forecast and safety stock, which is calculated by MySales.
This form allows customer to make a soft transition from forecasts that were calculated in existing auto-order system to MySales forecasts.
Safety stock adjustments
Overview & Use
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Page "Safety Stock Adjustments" is designed to set the safety stock coefficient for auto-order.
Safety stock coefficient can be set for the next levels:
SKU-All stores - the set coefficient applies to all stores;
Store - coefficient applies to all SKUs in the selected store;
SKU-Store - the coefficient is applied for a specific pair of sku-store.
The calculation of the safety stock is automatic, you can adjust it using the safety stock coefficients on the page.
Safety stock for each position is calculated on a weekly basis and is equal to the value of RMSE (root mean square error) for the forecast for the last 52 weeks. For example, if the RMSE at week 46 was 35, then the automatic safety stock for the position would be 35. The system automatically divides the forecast into 3 ranges: high, medium and low. The high range includes high sales season and promotional periods, the low range includes periods of seasonal decline in sales, and the middle range includes everything in between. For each range, safety stock is calculated separately (taking into account sales of only the corresponding range).
How we apply SS Adjustments
A change in safety stock coefficients without understanding how this affects orders volume and this can lead to a large over-order or under-order, which leads either to overstock or lost sales due to out of stock.
The safety stock coefficient can be raised only after all round estimation of the adequacy of the forecast and the safety stock values. The coefficient can never be raised for individual drops to out of stock. We recommend raising safety stock only for top positions.
To make a decision to increase the safety stock, you should be guided by the following criteria:
Shelf life - for the fresh products it is necessary to estimate whether there will be an over stock, which will lead to write-offs. For these products, it is necessary to find a balance between lost sales and write-offs;
Delivery frequency - worth considering that the SS coefficient is applied with the square root function. Thus, with daily delivery it will be counted in the order as ROOT SQUARE (1/7), with weekly delivery - as a unit from the level that you see in MySales;
Value of product for the company (margin) - for top positions, we recommend, if necessary, to raise SS (usually, valuable positions are those with a high sales rate);
Sales speed (the higher sales speed, the greater chance that an safety stock will be eaten) - for positions with a high sales rate, usually these are top positions that carry great value for company, it makes sense to increase the value of SS to increase availability;
Sales volatility (unpredictable positions that do not have patterns of sales fluctuations) - if the sales are very different from week to week and any patterns are not visible in these differences (the influence of price, seasonality, weather, the trend - all can be checked in the MySales interface), and at the same time, this position sells well, or brings good margin to the company, it makes sense to increase the SS coefficient so as not to miss the unpredictable jumps in sales. At the same time, it is important not to forget to evaluate the shelf life, if it is a fresh.
In general, you should use system approach for working with SZ, analyzing the history of sales, forecast and safety stock in the MySales interface. To do this, you need to add the Order component (which represents the forecast + weekly SS) and estimate the forecast quality and the adequacy of the safety stock on the chart, visually. It is necessary to estimate not only the current week, but also history.
Also, you do not need to immediately raise the SS coefficient when an out of stock occurs. It is necessary first to check the nature of the problem, since raising SS after a single loss leads to a over order.
Operating manual
The coefficient is intended for manual adjustment of the safety stock. With it, the user can manually change the safety stock value for the position. The user can both increase and decrease the safety stock. The system multiplies automatically calculated safety stock with coefficient value.
To increase the safety stock, the user have to set a coefficient greater than one. For example, if the system automatically calculated the safety stock is 35, when setting the coefficient 2, the safety stock will be equal to 70, similarly if you set 3, the stock will be 105. You can also set fractional coefficients, with a coefficient of 1.6 the safety stock will be 56 (since 35 * 1.6 = 56).
To reduce the safety stock, the user have to set a coefficient less than one. For example, if the system automatically calculated the safety is 35, when setting the coefficient 0.6, the safety stock will be equal to 21, similarly if you set 0.4, then the safety stock will be 14.
The changed value of the safety stock coefficient will remain in effect until the user change changed. The coefficient will change automatically every week. For example, if the ratio is set to 2, then next week the automatically calculated value of the safety stock will also be multiplied by 2.
To return safety stock to the default value, you need to remove the value from the coefficient field. You can also do this by setting the coefficient value to 0 or 1 (when setting the value to 0, the coefficient field will be automatically cleared).
To upload safety stock coefficients to a file, click the button. :. Data will be written to an Excel file.
Setting coefficients at the SKU-All stores level
To set the safety stock coefficient at the SKU-All stores level, select "SKUs" in the level selection line:
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After selection, a window opens with a table with all SKUs in the system:
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The table has the following fields:
Group id – group number to which Sku belongs;
Sku id – SKU id from MySales;
Name – the name of Sku;
Updated by – the user who last made the changes;
Updated – date of last change;
Coefficient – safety stock coefficient of Sku.
The coefficient is edited in the table. The "Coefficient" field is editable.
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When the "Coefficient" field is changed the new safety stock coefficient is saved and the fields "Updated" and "Updated by" are updated.
For more handy SKU searching and displaying the page contains the search line. The search takes place by fields:
Group id;
Sku id;
Name;
Updated by.
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Setting coefficients at the Store level
To set the safety stock coefficient at the Store level, select "Stores" in the level selection line:
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After selection, a window opens with a table with all Stores in the system:
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The table has the following fields:
Store id – Store id from MySales;
Name – the name of Store;
Updated by – the user who last made the changes;
Updated – date of last change;
Coefficient – safety stock coefficient of Sku.
The coefficient is edited in the table. The "Coefficient" field is editable.
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When the "Coefficient" field is changed the new safety stock coefficient is saved and the fields "Updated" and "Updated by" are updated.
Setting coefficients at the SKU-Store level
To set the safety stock coefficient at the Store level, select "SKUs/Stores" in the level selection line:
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After selection, a window with a table will open, in which records of SKU-Store pairs for which the safety stock coefficient is set will be displayed (if there are no such pairs, the table will be empty):
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To add a coefficient at the SKU-Store level, you must first add the SKU-Store pair. To do this, select the desired SKU in the "Select SKU" field, select the desired store in the "Select store" field and click the "Add" button:
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After clicking "Add" a pair of SKU-Shop will be added to the table. The following fields are displayed in the table:
Sku id – SKU id from MySales;
Name – the name of Sku;
Store id – Store id from MySales;
Name – the name of Store;
Updated by – the user who last made the changes;
Updated – date of last change;
Coefficient – safety stock coefficient of Sku.
The coefficient is edited in the table. The "Coefficient" field is editable.
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When the "Coefficient" field is changed the new safety stock coefficient is saved and the fields "Updated" and "Updated by" are updated.
Import coefficients from a file
On the safety stock adjustment page, to simplify the process of adding new coefficients, it is possible to immediately upload a large number of coefficients from files with next extensions: csv (with delimiter ;) and txt (with delimiter ;).
To load safety stock coefficients from a file, click on the button :
Import coefficients at SKU-All stores level
For the correct import, the file must have the following fields:
SKU_ID - column with SKU id from MySales;
SS - column with safety stock coefficient.
Import coefficients at Store level
For the correct import, the file must have the following fields:
STORE_ID - column with Store id from MySales;
SS - column with safety stock coefficient.
Import coefficients at SKU-Store level
For the correct import, the file must have the following fields:
SKU_ID - column with SKU id from MySales;
STORE_ID - column with Store id from MySales;
SS - column with safety stock coefficient.
Use cases
It is recommended to increase the safety stock coefficient when switching to an order based on the forecast for the following positions:
TOP 100/500/1000 sales volume postions for which shelf life allows you to keep an increased stock in order to increase availability. At the same time, for TOP 100 it is possible to consider raising the safety margin to 3, for TOP 500 it is recommended to use coefficient 2, while for TOP 1000 it is possible to consider the use of coefficient 1.5. The general rule of statistics says that the higher the sales rate of a position, the more accurate the forecast, respectively, the lower the safety stock. However, unpredictable sales surges still happen, therefore, an increase in the SS coefficient for such positions is justified.
Positions, which are margin generators and are valuable to the company. Such items, for example, may include company own brands products with a long shelf life, which allows to increase the safety stock in order to increase availability. If this position is not in the TOP, as a rule, the SS 2 coefficient is quite enough. It is also possible to consider coefficient 1.5
Fresh products with a limited shelf life, including vegetables and fruits, dairy products, bread, and other products with a shelf life of slightly more than the delivery cycle. For such goods, it is not recommended to use the SS coefficient above 1, and in some cases it may be advisable to reduce it to 0.5 or even to 0 if there is a goal to have a zero stock on them for the next morning.
Forecast Adjustment
Description
Page "Forecast Adjustment" is intended for manual adjustment of the forecast for the selected week for SKU-Store combinations.
Manual adjustment can be set as a fixed forecast value, or as a coefficient by which the forecast calculated by the system will be multiplied.
Manual forecast is always a priority, and the forecast will always be equal to the value that is set on this page.
It is also important to understand that if the user has set a master forecast and made an adjustment based on the coefficient, then the coefficient will not be multiplied by the initial forecast of the system, but by the already distributed master forecast. But if the correction is set based on a fixed forecast value, then the distributed master forecast will be overwritten by the value from the "Forecast adjustment" form.
Adding forecast adjustment
The user can add the adjustment in three ways:
For one SKU-Store
For several stores
From file
To add one combination, select SKU and Store from the corresponding fields and click the "Add" button.
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After pressing the button, the selected combination will appear in the list where the user sets either a coefficient or a fixed forecast value. It is important to remember that you can set only one of two values - either a coefficient or a forecast.
To add a combination of SKU and several stores at once, you need to click the "Create" button, after clicking, the window for adding corrections will open:
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With this method of adding, the user sets the forecast value for all selected stores, and then the system itself distributes the set value between the stores, based on sales interval specified in this window.
Import from file
To simplify adding adjustments, it is possible to load data from a file.
To import adjustments from a file, click on the button:
For correct import, the file must be in csv or txt format with a semicolon delimiter (;). The file must contain the following fields:
WEEK - week for adjustment;
SKU_ID - column with SKU number MySales;
STORE_ID - column with Store number MySales;
COEF - the coefficient by which the forecast should be multiplied;
FCST - fixed forecast value;
All columns should be present in the file, but for one SKU-Store combination it is permissible to fill in only one value - either COEF or FCST.
Fractional values in the fields COEF and FCST must be entered through a point (for example 1.4).
Sample import file available at link.
Anomaly & Excluded
Overview & Use
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Page "Anomaly" designed to output the number of anomaly sales in stores (if the user previously on the page "Analyze" indicated anomaly sales), as well as to output excluded weeks from the forecast at different levels by the user (if the user previously indicated excluded weeks on the "Analysis" page).
Anomaly sales are sales that are non-standard. Typically, with such sales, the system either overestimates or underestimates the forecast, because it does not understand the nature of such sales. It can be wholesale sales or just a large volume of sales of ordinary products without any reason.
Such sales must be excluded from the forecast. There are two options for how to do this:
If the user understands the amount of such sales - he should enter a specific (or as close as possible) number of anomaly sales into the system, then the system will see the sales as actual minus the specified anomaly ones;
If the user does not understand the amount of such sales, it makes sense to completely exclude the week from the forecast (how to do this is described in the section Working with excluded tab).
Accounting for anomaly sales is very important for the correct operation of the system. Since unjustified jumps in sales can cause incorrect dependencies in the system and in the future affect the accuracy of the forecast and order.
Operating manual
Working with anomalies tab
In order to see the data in "Anomalies" tab, user must indicate the presence of anomaly sales on "Analyze" page.
To do this, you first need to open a forecast at the level of one SKU.
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Then open "Components" tab , select "Volume" and press "Anomaly".
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After clicking on "Anomaly" a line appears in the window, in which you can enter the number of anomaly sales for each week. To close a line press button - .
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The list of anomalies is displayed in the form of a table that has the following fields:
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Group - the name of the group to which SKU belongs;
SKU - SKU name;
Store - the name of the store;
Anomalies - the number of anomaly sales and a week.
Anomalies tab filters
For more handy data displaying, "Anomalies" tab has following filters:
By level - to display data in a section of SKU or a group (to change the level, click on the desired field);
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Consolidation by positions:
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Detailed display of all table positions;
By SKU - display of positions without shops;
By Groups - mapping only groups and anomalies;
By Stores - display only stores and anomalies.
By period - the choice for which period to display the data (to confirm the change of the period, you need to press "Apply" .
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Working with excluded tab
To open the Exceptions tab click the following button:
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In order to see the data in "Excluded" tab, user must set excluded sales on "Analyze" page. To do this, open the tab "Components", select "Volume", and then, press "Excluded" at any forecast level.
After clicking on "Excluded", a line appears in the window, in which you put a tick under the week, which should be excluded from the forecast. To close a line press button - .
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The exception list is displayed as a table that has the following fields:
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Group - the name of the group to which SKU belongs;
SKU - SKU name;
Store - the name of the store;
Excluded - the number of exclusions and a week.
Excluded tab filters
For more handy data displaying, "Excluded" tab has following filters:
By level (to change the level, press to select the desired field);
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In the SKU cut (by default);
In the Group cut:
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Consolidation by positions:
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Detailed display of all table positions;
By SKU - display of positions without shops;
By Groups - mapping only groups and excluded;
By Stores - display only stores and excluded.
By period - select for which period display the data (to confirm the change of the period, you need to press "Apply" .
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Use cases
The use of anomalies and exclusions is useful for finer tuning of the sales history, in order to improve the quality of the forecast. Using this functionality, the system will better understand non-standard deviations in the sales history.
Anomalies should be used in the following cases:
Designation for the system of lost sales for those periods where it is difficult to distinguish them. For example, the products were listed on the stock, but was actually not available for sale for a certain time (for example, half a day for 2-3 days a week)
Designation for the system of lost sales for periods, which exclusion from the analysis will not improve the quality of the forecast, since these weeks are limited by periods and help the system to determine the dependencies valuable for forecasting. For example, promotional periods
The allocation of sales on pre-order, wholesales, or other pre-planned sales, which are one-time and are not repeated and massive. However, anomalies use in such a situation can only be justified with a limited sales history. If there is enough history, the use of exclusions will be better.
Exclusions should be used in the following cases:
To exclude periods with significant lost sales for those positions where there is enough history and an insignificant decrease in the number of periods for analysis will not lead to a decrease in the forecast quality
To exclude periods with significant pre-order or wholesale sales for positions where a regular sales history is sufficient for analysis
To exclude promotional periods from the analysis if the PROMO module is not used and MySales forecast is built for regular and seasonal sales, excluding promotional growth
Bad positions
Overview & Use
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Page "Bad items" allows the user to see on which positions a bad forecast is calculated. After each forecast build on the page "Analyze", the system automatically adds positions with the biggest error on page "Bad items".
Список плохих позиций отображается в виде таблицы, которая имеет следующие поля:
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Group - Group name;
SKU – SKU name;
Store – Store name;
MAPE – mean absolute percent error;
First Date - the date of the first forecast, in which a bad position appeared;
Last Date - the date of the last forecast, in which a bad position appeared.
Filters
For more handy displaying the page has following filters:
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SKU/Group – a selection of mapping in the SKU/Group view;
By MAPE – the table is sorted by the highest MAPE value;
By First Date – the table is sorted by the first date;
By Last Date – the table is sorted by the last date.
To clear data about bad positions, you have to press the button "Clear".
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Statistics
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Page "Statistics" displays detailed statistics of each calculated forecast.
The statistics are displayed in the form of a table that has the following fields:
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Date - the date the forecast was calculated;
Time -the time the forecast was calculated;
Total Items – the number of items participating in the forecast;
Slow Items – the number of slowly turning positions;
Stock days – the amount of stock in days;
Avail % – availability on the shelf in percent;
Avail ++ – availability change in percent;
Sales ++ – sales change in money;
% – percentage sales changes in money;
Stock -- – stock decrease in money;
% – percentage stock decrease in money;
MAPE – mean absolute percentage error.
Forecast statistics can be displayed relative to the following levels:
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SKU - store;
SKU - region;
Group - store;
Group - region.
It is possible to display general statistics press "Full range" checkbox, if previously a forecast was made for all positions.
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